A weekly bet on the Group Ones for spring 2021
With the first G1 of the season behind us, we now look forward to the G1 Memsie Stakes, what many believe is the unofficial start of the Spring Carnival.
This has caused us to scour the futures markets in search of some value as we look to the big groups, aiming to hit race days with a few stuck overshoots.
We had some success with this last year (ahem, Verry Elleegant at $ 17 in the Caulfield Cup, ahem), so the plan is to spend $ 50 a week and keep track of our live tickets as they go. and as we progress through the spring.
Here is hoping for full future ??
WEEK 3 – AUG 23
A positive weekend just ended for some horses we have a live ticket on, with Verry Elleegant showing she came back as good as ever and She’s Ideel exceeding all expectations with her first run.
Hungry Heart also did more than enough on the cover, the only (small) spot on the notebook being the speculative selection of Caulfield Guineas, Red Hawk is likely to aim for the Coolmore.
But as always, we are now looking forward to and paying an additional $ 50 this week …
Use the predictor now
$ 15 to win the Sir Rupert Clarke @ $ 12 (Ladbrokes, Pointsbet, Neds)
For the reasons mentioned in last week’s edition. For what it’s worth, he’s the lowest-rated runner among 19 nominations for the Memsie this week – but in most places he’s on the third betting line. He can definitely win, but Rupert Clarke’s handicap conditions – on the same track / distance and likely to face a similar field – will suit him much better.
How good was Beau Rossa!
– Racing SA (@RacingSA) July 31, 2021
IT IS IDEAL
$ 10 to win the Caulfield Cup @ $ 41 (Sportsbet)
$ 5 to win the Caulfield Cup / Melbourne Cup double @ $ 826 (Sportsbet)
Well, we’ve locked the overs ($ 12) for her in the Metropolitan for the past two weeks, with her excellent Winx Stakes comeback seeing her downright favorite at $ 7. Frankly, I think she’s a lock (bad words!) However, now I think she could reach even higher heights throughout the spring, such was the strength of her first run. These heights being the Caulfield, and possibly even the Melbourne, Cup. It’s clearly a big request to win one of the Australiathe biggest races given that she has yet to win a G1, but we know the international contingent will be limited this year – maybe even nonexistent. Considering she was only 0.07L from Verry Elleegant on weekends at weight-for-age, there’s no reason to think she couldn’t compete in the Caulfield Cup with a lightweight. If she wins the Metrop as I expected, she will certainly run less than the $ 41 currently available (with the $ 11 price tag quite acceptable as well). And while it’s highly unlikely – probably impossible – that she could win the Caulfield / Melbourne Cup double, I’ll have a little bet on that too.
Can we just take a moment to appreciate this fierce queen? ??
SHE’S IDEEL moved from last place to 3rd place in Group 1 Winx Stakes.
Should have been too short at 1400m, too cool and a bad gate to boot – but try to tell him that
Watch this space for some exciting preparation pic.twitter.com/hlsmR7ZFoQ
– Bjorn Baker Racing (@BBakerRacing) August 21, 2021
$ 20 to win the Cox Plate @ $ 9 (Sportsbet)
It was another great G1 performance from this star mare in the Winx Stakes. Wide throughout, first at 1400m on a Cox Plate path and she beats the one that had the sucking stroke behind her on all bars – she came back as good as ever and is on the right track for a big spring. I could be lyrical about her, but the point is, I still think she’s the best horse in Australia (beyond sprint trips). Yes, Zaaki might turn out to be something special and take that coat away from him in late spring – but he still has to. Frankly I think these are the only two horses trained in Australia that can win the Cox Plate, with very few of them. But the fact that she’s twice as likely as him is, to me, ridiculous. I don’t see her starting over $ 5 that day, so I’m more than happy to support her at $ 9 now – and the $ 3 she can place seems like an exceptional option for those who enjoy playing games. spring multis.
🏆 Stakes of the vineyard stud farm
🏆 Caulfield Cup
Chipping Norton Stakes
Take advantage of Verry Elleegant’s 8 Group 1 victories. pic.twitter.com/3zjXNexb39
– 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@ 7horseracing) August 17, 2021
SIR RUPERT CLARKE (18/9)
$ 15 on Beau Rossa @ $ 14
MOIR CHALLENGES (24/9)
$ 8.50 on Enthaar at $ 12
EPSOM HANDICAP (2/10)
$ 10 on ice bath @ $ 26
THE METROPOLITAN (2/10)
$ 20 on She’s Ideel @ $ 12
$ 5 on She’s Ideel @ $ 12
CAULFIELD GUINEA (9/10)
$ 5 on Red Hawk @ $ 34
THOUSAND GUINEAS (13/10)
$ 10 on Najmaty @ $ 26
CAULFIELD CUP (10/16)
$ 5 on Hungry Heart @ $ 34
COX PLATE (23/10)
$ 11.50 on Verry Elleegant @ $ 9
MELBOURNE CUP (2/11)
$ 5 in Persian at $ 61
$ 5 on Delphi at $ 51
READ: Future Focus Week 1 (August 9)
READ: Future focus week 2 (August 16)