The cost of plant-based meat is expected to reach parity with conventional animal meat by 2023, according to new information from the nonprofit Good Food Institute (GFI). Achieving price parity is vital for mainstream adoption, as consumers are more likely to try a new plant-based option that isn’t significantly more expensive than its animal-based counterpart.

In a recent study conducted by GFI with consumer research firm Mindlab that investigated price as a driver of purchase intent, consumers ranked price as the second most important factor (behind taste ) in the purchase of a herbal product. Although retail plant-based meat sales grew 45% in 2020, on average, Neilson’s data demonstrates that plant-based meat per pound is currently twice as expensive as conventional beef, three times as expensive as pork and four times more expensive. times more expensive than chicken. For most consumers, reducing the price gap would likely increase the intention to purchase herbal products.

To get to price parity, plant-based foods have a few looming hurdles. The animal agriculture industry has been able to cut costs because it has slaughtered animals for food for decades on a large scale with the help of government subsidies. However, the plant sector is newer and has not yet achieved the same economies of scale.

“Achieving price parity is all about scale,” Emma Ignaszewski, corporate engagement project manager at GFI, told VegNews. “Making the plant-based meat supply chain more efficient and risk-resistant can lead to lower costs for the manufacturer and ultimately greater accessibility for the consumer.”

2032: The end of animal meat?

A 2021 report by investment firm Blue Horizon and business consultant BCG also points out that the key to consumer acceptance is price parity. The report notes that alternative proteins should taste and feel as good as the conventional foods they replace and cost the same or less. According to their research, price parity will occur in three key stages.

First, plant-based products such as burgers, dairy, and egg substitutes made from soy, peas, and other plant-based proteins will reach price parity in 2023. By 2025, protein alternatives made from microorganisms such as fungi, yeasts and mono-cell algae will achieve parity. And finally, proteins grown directly from animal cells (often called “cell-based meat” or “cultured meat”) will reach price parity by 2032.

GFI’s own research suggests that cultured meat could become competitive with some conventional animal meats as early as 2030, when cultured meat is expected to reach a cost of production of $2.92 per pound.

“None of this can happen if consumers are unhappy with the taste of plant-based meat products. It doesn’t help increase something consumers won’t buy,” Ignaszewski said. “So companies must first and foremost make plant-based products that come closer and closer to tasting the same or better than conventional meat. Scaling a plant-based product that tastes the same as conventional meat – or better – to the point that it also achieves price parity is a golden formula.

Why the price of animal meat is rising

According to GFI, the increase in the price parity of plant-based meats is not only affected by production costs but also by market effects which make traditional meat-based products more expensive. Recent developments in animal agriculture, such as rising input costs, meatpacker labor issues and supply chain disruptions, have all affected the price of animal meat. In the fall of 2021, conventional meat categories such as beef, chicken, and pork saw double-digit price increases compared to the same week in 2020. Plant-based meat prices compared to the previous year decreased or remained the same.

Additional supply chain disruptions occurred at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, when the country’s slaughterhouses and meat processing plants were forced to close due to outbreaks of COVID-19 among workers, causing delays in the meat supply chain.

Shoulder-to-shoulder working conditions in slaughterhouses mean workers are at higher risk of becoming infected.

“Disruptions like this and the resulting price increases for conventional categories go hand in hand with production inefficiencies in the conventional meat supply chain,” GFI said in its report.

Plant-based meat is getting closer to parity

In recent years, major brands and private labels have already attempted to undervalue animal meat to further drive demand for plant-based products. In 2020, Trader Joe’s launched its Plant-Based Pea Protein Burger Patties and priced them at $4.49 for two quarter-pound patties. Also in 2020, Kroger launched its plant-based ground chicken for $6.99 for a one-pound package.

Last year, plant-based brand Impossible Foods announced its second price cut in a year for its plant-based ground meat, slashing the suggested retail price to $9.32 per pound, a drop of 20%. And competitor Beyond Meat also said it aims to undervalue animal protein in at least one category by the end of 2024.

For more on vegan meat, read:
Why the best new meat products will come from Korea
Will vegan meat replace animal meat? Here’s what Beyond Meat’s CEO says.
The USDA just invested $10 million in lab-grown meat

Nicole Axworthy is editor of VegNews and author of the cookbook DIY vegan.