This calculator estimates your risk of catching COVID-19 during daily activities
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You’ve been through countless lockdowns, mandate changes, quarantines, tests and vaccines. Now, it’s time to decide if you’re ready to step back into the world once again. Still hesitating to go out? This new COVID-19 risk calculator could help you.
The MicroCOVID project has released a new calculator that can “quantitatively estimate the risk of COVID for you from your ordinary daily activities”.
“We searched the scientific literature for data on the likelihood of contracting COVID in different situations and combined the data into a model that people can use,” the scientists behind the project explain on their website. “We estimate the risk of COVID in units of microCOVID, where one microCOVID = one in a million chance of contracting COVID. “
The purpose of the calculator is not to scare you, but rather to “help you refine your intuition, reduce your stress levels and find good risk reduction strategies.”
Here’s how it works: First, enter your location (country or state), then add your county. This will help the calculator give a baseline number as it tracks current cases and collects prevalence data from places like Johns Hopkins, COVID Act Now, and Our World in Data.
Then it will ask you to “describe the scenario” or choose one from the list, which includes items such as “outside, hidden, going out with two other people” or “grocery shopping for 60 minutes”.
For testing purposes, I am entering my home state, Rhode Island and Washington County. I then asked about the risk of hanging out with two people outside while being masked. I was given a “low risk” assessment.
The calculation also provided me with another metric: my “weekly risk budget,” which the creators explained to Smithsonian magazine, works like a “financial budget”. Just try to stick to your budget to reduce your risk.
For my little outdoor gathering, I spent 5% of my weekly risk budget and 10 microCOVID every time I did this action. If I moved the barometer from a well-fitting cloth mask to an N95, that risk dropped to just 2% and only took three microCOVIDs, or three in a million chances of contracting COVID.
What is riskier? According to the calculator, in my home state and county, if I were to hang out inside and unmask 10 people who may or may not have yet received a vaccine, my chances of catching COVID would skyrocket to “dangerously high.” “, taking 30 times my weekly risk budget and representing 6,000 microCOVIDs.
The calculator can even become more granular. If I understand that this is a group of speakers, my risk drops to 30,000 microCOVID.
Again, this is not about scaring yourself or judging your decisions; instead, he’s there to educate you about your personal risk.
“It gives you kind of a common playing field to understand all kinds of activities,” shared with Ben Shaya, a contributor to the microCOVID project. Smithsonian magazine. “It separates some of the emotional charge from it.”
Check out the calculator and start using it to find your comfort level here.
